Sunday, October 21, 2007

DOW Worst Days

Brutal sell-off on Wall Streets on 19/10/2007, which registered its third worst day of the year '07.

Fears about credit and housing sector, earnings, record-high oil prices, slide in dollar.And what the Fed would do next is to cut interest by 0.25 basis pt, understand Fed do not want to see itself as though it is encouraging speculators of the housing market, neither, does it want the fears about credit and housing sector to linger on.

Sunday, October 14, 2007

Chinese Equity Funds Stole Limelight In First 3Q of 2007 - 14/10/07

Chinese Equity Funds Stole Limelight In First 3Q of 2007 - 14/10/07

http://www.fundsupermart.com/main/research/viewHTML.tpl?lang=en&articleNo=2336

One market occurrence which definitely left a deep impact on investors during the third quarter this year would be the sharp correction in the global equity markets, spanning end-July to mid-August. Investors were shaken by worries over the US sub-prime credit issues — the result of offering easy credit to US mortgage borrowers with bad credit track record in the last few years. However, market sentiments turned for the better when the Federal Reserve decided to cut target benchmark rates by a higher-than-expected 50 basis points to 4.75% on 18 September. Following this swift twist of market climate, the performance of a number of equity funds has also improved. In the first three quarters of 2007, 86% of the 336 funds distributed on our electronic platform had delivered positive returns.
Unlike the first two quarters of the year in which Southeast Asian equity funds performed very well, funds which invest in China and Greater China equities came out tops in the best-performing funds scoreboard for the first three quarters of 2007. On our platform, the best-performing Chinese equity fund in the period was the DWS China Equity Fund Class A SGD — the fund returned a stunning 68.9%. All returns are in SGD terms.
Table 1: Top-Performing Funds In First 3Q of 2007
Fund Name
Returns As At end-September 2007
Sector / Regions
DWS China Equity Fund Class A SGD
68.9%
China
HGIF Chinese Equity-A SGD
60.5%
China
Fidelity China Focus USD
60.0%
China
UOB United Greater China Fund
57.9%
Greater China
SGAM Golden China Fund S$
56.0%
Greater China
Fidelity S East Asia A-SGD
52.7%
Asia ex-Japan
United Asian Growth Opportunities
51.3%
Asia ex-Japan
PRU Dragon Peacock Fund
50.8%
India/China
Franklin Templeton F-Asian Equity
50.4%
Asia ex-Japan
DWS Noor China Equity CL A USD
50.3%
China
Lion Capital China Growth
47.8%
China
First State Regional China
47.0%
Greater China
ABN AMRO Brazil Equity Fund A USD
46.7%
Brazil
First State Global Resources
45.2%
Global Resources
Legg Mason Asian Enterprise
45.0%
Asia ex-Japan
Franklin Templeton F-China
44.6%
Greater China
Fidelity Greater China USD
44.1%
Greater China
Schroder Greater China Fund
43.3%
Greater China
Legg Mason SEA Special Sits
42.9%
Southeast Asia
UOB United Asia Fund
42.7%
Asia ex-Japan
Source: Fundsupermart.com compilations; performance figures in the tables are calculated in SGD terms using bid-to-bid prices, with any income or dividend reinvested.
The strength in Greater China and Chinese equity funds corresponds to the strength of their underlying equity markets' performance, represented by the Hang Seng Mainland Composite Index (HSMLCI) — Fundsupermart.com's proxy for Chinese equities. As mentioned in the report ' Top Performing Markets in the First Three Quarters of 2007', Chinese equities were the top scorer among all other equity markets we cover, chalking up a return of 54.4% in the first 3Q of 2007. Of the top 20 best-performing funds featured on Table 1, 11 are either invested in Chinese or Greater China equities.
Three of the best-performing Chinese equity funds include the DWS China Equity Fund Class A, the HGIF Chinese Equity-A SGD and the Fidelity China Focus USD. In the first nine months of the year, these funds returned more than 60%. Referring to our benchmark index for Chinese equities, the telecommunications, banking and finance as well as the property sectors were the stronger performers within the index. An important piece of news which has boosted market sentiment, in our opinion, was the Chinese government's pilot scheme to allow larger fund inflows from the Mainland Chinese investors into the Hong Kong Exchange. Due to the restrictions placed on the Mainland Chinese investors to invest their monies outside of the country, both the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indices have skyrocketed in the past one year, as most retail investors could only invest in stocks listed in these exchanges.
In SGD terms, the Shenzhen and Shanghai A-share indices were up 184.3% and 108.2% respectively as at end-September 2007. The estimated PE for both indices was at 44.4X and 53.6X respectively, based on 2007's earnings growth — both at their all-time highs. At one glance, investors might be concerned about whether these two markets are turning bubblish; the silver lining, however, is that the Chinese equity funds distributed on our platform are largely invested in Hong Kong-listed Chinese companies and H-shares. Based on the factsheets, and as at end August 2007, these funds invest approximately 90% to 98.2% into H-shares or Chinese companies listed in the Hong Kong market.
Based on our PE estimates, the valuations for the H-shares are far lower than those of the A-shares listed in the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock exchanges. The estimated PE for the HSMLCI were 27.5X and 23.4X for 2007 and 2008 respectively (as at end-September 2007). Thus, the H-shares appear to be more attractively valued at this point of time, and we maintain a 3-star or 'Attractive' rating on the Chinese equity markets (primarily H-shares and Chinese companies listed in the Hong Kong market). However, investors who wish to invest in Chinese equity funds should be aware that these funds would experience greater volatility compared to the market conditions a few years ago, as the Chinese bourses are no longer trading at inexpensive levels.
Aside from the Chinese equity funds, other funds listed on the list of top 20 best-performing funds include equity funds which invest in regions including Southeast Asia, Asia ex-Japan, India/China and Brazil. On a year-to-date basis, Asia ex-Japan equity funds were the best-performing regional equity funds.What About The Regional Funds?
The Asia ex-Japan equity funds delivered a strong average return of 33% in the first nine months of 2007 – the highest among all regions we cover. Two of the best-performing Asia ex-Japan equity funds on our platform include the Fidelity South East Asia A-SGD and the United Asian Growth Opportunities Fund; as at end-September, these funds returned 52.7% and 51.3% respectively. The next best performing regional equity funds would be the emerging market equity funds, which returned an average of 25.5% in the first nine months of the year. The Fidelity Emerging Market A-SGD Fund, for instance, returned 31.3% during this period. All regional equity funds enjoyed positive returns, except for the Japanese equity funds which have lost an average of 5.7%. Only the regional funds distributed on the Fundsupermart.com platform have been taken into consideration when computing the average returns figures above.
Table 2: Performance of the Regional Equity Funds
Region
Average Fund Returns (%)
Index
Performance (%)
Asia ex-Japan
33.0%
MSCI Asia ex-Japan
31.8%
Emerging Market
25.5%
MSCI Emerging Markets
27.7%
Europe
7.9%
DJ Stoxx 50
7.9%
US
6.3%
S&P 500
4.1%
Japan
-5.7%
Nikkei 225
-2.2%
Source: Fundsupermart.com compilations; the performance figures in the tables are calculated in SGD terms using bid-to-bid prices, with any income or dividend reinvested.Japanese Equity & European Property Funds Were Disheartening
Of the ten worst-performing funds on our platform, two were invested in property equities and five were invested in either Japanese equities or Japanese small- and mid-sized company equities. To be specific, two of the worst-performing funds were the Henderson European Property Securities and PRU Japan Smaller Companies fund; the funds lost 16.4% and 19.1% respectively.
The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) 2nd Section Index, which represents Japanese smaller-cap equities, tumbled 12.4% in the first nine months of 2007. Small-to-mid cap Japanese stocks fared poorer than the large caps, represented by the Nikkei 225 index; the index lost only 2.2% in the same period. The weak consumer confidence and capital spending had also kept market sentiments low. Corporate capital spending declined in the second quarter and consumer confidence remained generally subdued as a result of higher taxes and falling wage levels. With the estimated market PE at 23.7X and 21.9X for 2007 and 2008 respectively (fiscal year ending March 2008 and 2009), we think the market remains reasonably priced. However, as we find other regional markets more attractive, we maintain a neutral view on the Japanese equity market.
European and Global Property funds have been hit hard this year. European properties did not do well this year as the European Central Bank (ECB) hiked their benchmark refinancing rate from 3.5% at end-December 2006 to 4.0% as at end-September 2007. The European benchmark rates have been rising to a higher-than-expected level. Thus, investors of the European property sector equities might have grown wary of the potential impact of these rate hikes on the borrowers' ability to repay their property loans, and feel that the yield premium (on top of the risk-free rate of return in Europe) offered by European property Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) may not be attractive enough to compensate investors for the additional risks they are taking on when investing in European property equities. These and other reasons might have prompted investors of European equities to switch to other sectoral plays within the region.
On global property funds, as many of these have a higher proportion of their assets in American property, they have thus been affected by the contagion effect of the US sub-prime mortgage crisis. It is important to consider that the US property prices have rallied over the past 5 years, owing to the initial favourable credit environment in the US after the 911 Incident, where buyers were able to buy properties at very low interest rates. However, the property market has seen declines from its highs, as highly leveraged borrowers were hit hard by the rising interest rates. Property shares also dived lower by momentum selling when the market panic set in. Commercial REITs — which most global property funds invest in — are now highly priced and offer low yields, making them unattractive for the investors. We maintain a negative view on the outlook for the global property funds, especially so when such funds invest a large proportion of their assets in US properties.
Table 3: Ten Worst-Performing Funds in First 3Q of 2007
Fund Name
Returns
Sector / Regions
Schroder Emerging Markets Bond Fund
-4.3%
Emerging Market Bonds
DBS Global Property Securities Fund
-4.7%
Global Property
Franklin Floating Rate Fund-Class A
-5.9%
Floating Rate Bonds
Franklin Templeton F-Japan
-6.5%
Japan
Henderson Japanese Equity
-8.6%
Japan
ABN AMRO GEM Bond USD A
-9.4%
Emerging Market Bonds
Aberdeen Japan Equity
-10.1%
Japan
DWS Japan Small/Mid Cap A SGD
-15.7%
Japanese Small-Mid Cap
Henderson European Prop Securities
-16.4%
European Property
PRU Japan Smaller Companies Fund
-19.1%
Japanese Small-Mid Cap
Source: Fundsupermart.com compilations; the performance figures in the tables are calculated in SGD terms using bid-to-bid prices, with any income or dividend reinvested.
The Best-sellers
Table 4 shows the list of regional or sectoral funds which have garnered the highest levels of subscription at Fundsupermart.com. China/Greater China and Asia ex-Japan equity funds — which were the strongest performing funds in the first three quarters — were the most popular funds among our investors. Southeast Asian, Malaysian and Singaporean equity funds were also some of the most favoured among our investors.
One very well-received fund not shown on this list was the Cash Fund; this is a fund used as a parking tool for the investors when they switch-sell out of any of their funds or take profits. Since its inception on 23 January 2007, the size of the fund has upsurged to S$174.2 million as at end-August 2007.
The most popular investment regions by volume examines the funds with the top sales volume in the first three quarters of the year. This serves as a reference to the level of interest which the investors have on these funds which are distributed on our platform; however, investors are reminded not to solely consider the information published in this table when deciding which fund to invest in. It would be advisable for investors to find out more on our research views toward some of these markets, available in the 'Markets Update' section of our web portal.
Table 4: Most Popular Investment Regions by Volume in First 3Q of 2007
Region / Sector
China / Greater China
Asia ex-Japan
Asia Balanced
Malaysia
Southeast Asia
Singapore
Source: Fundsupermart.com compilations
Greater China & Asia ex-Japan Equities Remain Attractive
Chinese equity funds stood resilient during the recent correction led by the sub-prime woes in the mid-July to early August period. Out of the twenty best-performing equity funds on our platform, more than half were either invested in the Chinese or Greater China equities. The best-performing Chinese equity fund was the DWS China Equity Fund Class A SGD which returned 68.9% in the first nine months of the year. As the Chinese equity funds on our platform are largely invested in H-shares or Chinese companies listed in the Hong Kong bourse, instead of the A-shares listed in the Shenzhen and Shanghai exchanges, we think Chinese equities will remain attractive. Based on 2007's earnings growth, the estimated PE for the HSMLCI is at 27.5X — a level more attractive than the A-shares in the Shenzhen and Shanghai markets. The next best-performing regional equity funds were the Asia ex-Japan equity funds, which were driven by the strong performance of Greater China and Southeast Asian equities. The estimated PE of the Asia ex-Japan region is 19.1X and 17.2X for 2007 and 2008 respectively, and their earnings growth remain at healthy levels of 17.9% and 14.5% respectively for both years. We are of the view that the fundamentals still remain sound for the Asia ex-Japan equities, and hence, we have retained our 'Attractive' rating for the region.

Comparison Of REITs in Singapore 19 sep 07


Allco Reit has yield of 6.04% for FY07E and 6.40% for FY08E.


Drawing on its coffers for KeyPoint acquisitionBuy S$1.04; Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.65 (Prev S$1.39)